Putin reveals no signal of stopping the conflict as Russia doubles down on Ukraine

That, certainly, has been the official Russian stance for a while: that what is occurring in Ukraine quantities to a European conflict on Russia. It’s a narrative that skips over the truth that in 2022 it was the Kremlin that launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and that Russia continues to wage conflict there.

How far would Russia go to sever European help for Kyiv?

Is Moscow, for instance, actively making ready to provoke navy battle in Europe with a Nato member state? That appears unlikely. After greater than four-and-a-half years of conflict Russia’s military has not but managed to occupy the entire of Ukraine’s japanese Donbas area, proper subsequent door to Russia.

Combating Europe might not be the plan, however freaking it out, to cut back help for Kyiv, might effectively be the intention.

Hearken to the messaging.

“In the event that they proceed this conflict, a European conflict with American assist, towards Russia, on Ukrainian territory, ultimately we’ll really feel the necessity to escalate,” warns outstanding international coverage strategist Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of Russia’s Council for Overseas and Defence Coverage.

“In keeping with my eventualities, the primary sequence of blows can be typical,” he advised me. “But when Europe doesn’t give up, sadly, we must go nuclear. There can be little left of some European international locations.”

But when Russia went nuclear there can be a response from Europe, and nothing can be left of Russia, I counsel.

“No, there can be no response from Europe,” stated Karaganov. “What, Britain will assault Russia with nuclear weapons? I hope you are not that loopy. I am positive the People usually are not that loopy.”